{"id":9715,"date":"2025-07-25T17:17:27","date_gmt":"2025-07-25T17:17:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inhedge.mx\/?p=9715"},"modified":"2025-07-25T17:17:30","modified_gmt":"2025-07-25T17:17:30","slug":"brent-y-diesel-correlacion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inhedge.mx\/es\/brent-y-diesel-correlacion\/","title":{"rendered":"Por qu\u00e9 la correlaci\u00f3n entre Brent y di\u00e9sel ya no es tan directa"},"content":{"rendered":"

Durante a\u00f1os, muchas empresas con exposici\u00f3n al precio del di\u00e9sel utilizaron El Brent<\/a> como referencia para estimar sus costos o estructurar coberturas financieras. Esta pr\u00e1ctica se basaba en una correlaci\u00f3n s\u00f3lida entre ambos precios. Sin embargo, esa relaci\u00f3n ya no es tan directa. Factores log\u00edsticos, geopol\u00edticos y estructurales han modificado el mercado del di\u00e9sel, especialmente el ULSD (Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel)<\/a>Si tu empresa usa este \u00edndice, es importante que revises si el Brent sigue siendo una referencia adecuada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Understanding the historical relationship between Brent and diese<\/strong>l<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

El Brent ha sido uno de los principales puntos de referencia global en el mercado petrolero, especialmente en Europa, \u00c1frica y Medio Oriente. Debido a su calidad y disponibilidad, muchas refiner\u00edas procesaban Brent para producir destilados medios como el di\u00e9sel. Esta transformaci\u00f3n manten\u00eda una correlaci\u00f3n estable entre el precio del crudo y el de sus derivados, permitiendo utilizar el Brent como base para cubrir el costo de productos refinados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Qu\u00e9 ha cambiado en el mercado del di\u00e9sel<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Desde 2020, la estructura del mercado del di\u00e9sel ha cambiado de forma considerable. La pandemia provoc\u00f3 cierres de refiner\u00edas y disrupciones en la demanda. Posteriormente, eventos como la guerra en Ucrania modificaron los flujos comerciales y cadenas de suministro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La capacidad de refinaci\u00f3n en Europa se ha reducido, lo que ha incrementado la dependencia de importaciones. Al mismo tiempo, los m\u00e1rgenes de refinaci\u00f3n (conocidos como crack spreads) se han vuelto m\u00e1s vol\u00e1tiles, influenciados por precios del gas natural, inventarios bajos y cuellos de botella log\u00edsticos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Estos cambios han creado una nueva din\u00e1mica en la que el precio del di\u00e9sel reacciona a factores m\u00e1s espec\u00edficos y regionales, reduciendo su alineaci\u00f3n con el Brent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ULSD y su mercado espec\u00edfico<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

El ULSD es el di\u00e9sel con bajo contenido de azufre utilizado en la mayor\u00eda de los veh\u00edculos pesados y procesos industriales. Su precio ya no depende \u00fanicamente del valor del crudo, sino de m\u00faltiples factores:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Costo de refinaci\u00f3n, influido por el gas natural y la eficiencia operativa.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Eventos clim\u00e1ticos o mantenimientos en refiner\u00edas clave (como las del Golfo de EE.UU.).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Niveles de inventarios y demanda regional.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    En mercados como el estadounidense, el ULSD se cotiza en bolsas como el NYMEX bajo el contrato de NY Harbor ULSD, con din\u00e1mica propia respecto al Brent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Datos recientes que muestran la disociaci\u00f3n<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Entre 2022 y 2024, se han registrado periodos donde el Brent subi\u00f3 m\u00e1s de 15%, mientras que el ULSD mantuvo precios estables o incluso cay\u00f3. Esto ha sido especialmente notorio en momentos donde aumentaron los m\u00e1rgenes de gasolina, pero no los del di\u00e9sel, o cuando se acumularon inventarios de destilados en ciertas regiones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Adem\u00e1s, los m\u00e1rgenes de refinaci\u00f3n del di\u00e9sel han mostrado una variabilidad importante. En 2022, el crack spread entre ULSD y Brent super\u00f3 los $60 por barril en algunos momentos, mientras que en 2024 ha oscilado entre $25 y $45, seg\u00fan datos de la EIA y CME Group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Qu\u00e9 considerar si utilizas el \u00edndice ULSD<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Si tu estructura de precios o tus coberturas est\u00e1n basadas en el Brent, pero tu exposici\u00f3n real es al ULSD, podr\u00edas estar asumiendo un riesgo innecesario. Algunas recomendaciones:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Eval\u00faa si tu correlaci\u00f3n actual entre costos y Brent sigue siendo v\u00e1lida.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Considera instrumentos m\u00e1s directos como swaps sobre ULSD.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Analiza la volatilidad del crack spread entre Brent y ULSD, ya que ese diferencial puede ser m\u00e1s determinante en tu exposici\u00f3n real.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Identifica si hay influencias regionales que afectan directamente tu costo de abastecimiento.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      Recomendaciones para empresas expuestas al ULSD<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      Una cobertura eficiente requiere alinear el instrumento financiero con el riesgo f\u00edsico. Para empresas que compran di\u00e9sel o est\u00e1n expuestas al precio del ULSD, esto implica:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • Revisar la estructura de precios de los proveedores: \u00bfest\u00e1 realmente indexada al Brent o a otro \u00edndice?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Utilizar derivados sobre ULSD como swaps o futuros de NY Harbor ULSD.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Consultar con asesores especializados para dise\u00f1ar una estrategia de cobertura que considere la disociaci\u00f3n con el Brent y el comportamiento del mercado refinado.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        El Brent sigue siendo una referencia relevante en el mercado energ\u00e9tico, pero ya no explica completamente el comportamiento del di\u00e9sel ULSD. Para quienes compran, transportan o utilizan este producto, es momento de revisar si sus estrategias est\u00e1n alineadas con la realidad del mercado. Ajustar la cobertura al instrumento adecuado puede marcar una diferencia financiera importante.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        La relaci\u00f3n entre Brent y di\u00e9sel ULSD ya no es tan directa. Conoce qu\u00e9 ha cambiado y c\u00f3mo ajustar tu estrategia de cobertura si est\u00e1s indexado al ULSD.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9719,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[58],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy the Brent and diesel correlation is no longer direct - InHedge<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Brent and diesel relationship is no longer direct. 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